Houston vs. Duke: NCAA Tournament Preview and Prediction
Here is everything you need to know about Houston and Duke in our Cougars vs. Blue Devils NCAA Men’s Tournament Sweet 16 preview.
No. 1 Houston (32-4) vs. No. 4 Duke (26-8)
Time, TV: 8:39 p.m. Friday, CBS
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
All-time series: First meeting
NCAA Tournament Results: Houston: def. Longwood, 86-46 (first round), def. Texas A&M, 100-95 (OT, second round); Duke: def. Vermont, 64-47 (first round), def. James Madison, 93-55 (second round)
Winner: Advances to the Elite Eight on Sunday.
Projected starting lineups
Houston: G Jamal Shead, G L.J. Cryer, F Javier Francis, F J’Wan Roberts, G Emanuel Sharp.
Duke: G Jeremy Roach, G Jared McCain, G Tyrese Proctor, C Kyle Filipowski, F Mark Mitchell.
Players to watch
Houston
F J’Wan Roberts
Roberts is as tough as they come. He’s been fighting a shin injury since before the Big 12 Tournament and he re-aggravated it early in the Cougars’ second-round game with Texas A&M. He got treatment and he gutted his way through it. And he didn’t just take up space, either. He played 33 minutes, scored 13 points, grabbed eight rebounds and was perfect from the floor (6-foot-6). All of that was overshadowed by the drama in the final moments and overtime against the Aggies. But going up against Duke and their big, Kyle Filipowski, Roberts will have to come up big again.
Duke
C Kyle Filipowski
Speak of the (Blue) Devil. The sophomore seven-footer is having another great season for Duke. He’s averaged 16.6 points and 8.8 rebounds this season, along with 2.9 assists and 1.6 blocks. But he’s had an interesting tournament. In the opener against Vermont, he only scored three points. But he also had 12 rebounds, four assists and three blocked shots. Then, against James Madison in the second round, he flipped it — 14 points, five rebounds, four assists and a blocked shot. He also had two steals in each game. With the uncertain status of guard Jeremy Roach (dislocated finger), Filipowski may need to carry a bigger load on Friday.
Key storylines
Houston
Believe Houston is a Big 12 team now? I’ve told everyone that would listen that Houston was already built like a Big 12 team before the Cougars even entered the conference. If one didn’t believe it after an undefeated non-conference or winning 14-of-15 league games after starting 1-2 in Big 12 play and winning the outright regular-season title, then Sunday night against Texas A&M should have done the trick. After losing the lead in regulation, losing four players to foul trouble and finding a way to overcome the Aggies’ decisive offensive rebounding advantage, Houston’s toughness was on full display. These Cougars are built for March, even if they aren’t full-strength.
Duke
We all know the pedigree. But life after Coach K has only been a little bumpy. His hand-picked successor, Jon Scheyer, led the Blue Devils to the second round of the NCAA Tournament last year and now he has them in the Sweet 16 for the first time since their Final Four run in 2022. Key to the run has been guard Jeremy Roach, who seems like he’s been at Duke forever but he’s actually just a senior (these days that is forever at one school). If his dislocated pinky finger gives him problems, it could give Duke problems. The good news is Roach is one of five Blue Devils that average at least 10 points per game. So if one doesn’t produce, another picks up the slack.
Prediction
Houston 84, Duke 81. These games are toss-ups at this point. If Houston’s guards play the way they played against Texas A&M, that will make the difference.
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.
