Iowa State vs. Illinois: NCAA Tournament Preview and Prediction
Here is everything you need to know about Iowa State and Illinois in our Cyclones vs. Fighting Illini NCAA Men’s Tournament Sweet 16 preview.
No. 2 Iowa State (29-7) vs. No. 3 Illinois (28-8)
Time, TV: 9:09 p.m. CT, Thursday, TBS/truTV
Location: TD Garden, Boston, Mass.
All-time series (Illinois leads, 11-3): Iowa State def. Illinois, 84-68, on Nov. 20, 2018, at the Maui Classic.
NCAA Tournament Results: Iowa State: def. South Dakota State, 82-65 (first round), def. Washington State, 67-56 (second round); Washington State: def. Drake, 66-61 (first round), def. Duquesne, 89-63 (second round).
Winner: Advances to the Elite Eight on Saturday.
Projected starting lineups
Iowa State: G Tamin Lipsey, G Keshon Gilbert, F Tre King, F Robert Jones, F Milan Momcilovic.
Illinois: G Terrence Shannon Jr., F Marcus Domask, F Coleman Hawkins, F Quincy Guerrier, F Ty Rodgers.
Players to watch
Iowa State
G Curtis Jones
The Cyclones are only going to go three players deep off their bench, so whatever scoring they can get is welcome. Jones, a senior, has given the Cyclones quality production off the bench in each of their first two tournament games. His line against South Dakota State was 11 points, four rebounds, three assists, one block and two steals. His line against Washington State was 14 points, four rebounds and four assists. Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert are the top two options in the backcourt. But what Jones gives them off the bench is significant and he averages nearly 11 points per game.
Illinois
G Terrence Shannon Jr.
Big 12 fans are familiar with Shannon, as he started his career with Texas Tech and played his first three seasons of college basketball in Lubbock. After three quality seasons with the Red Raiders, he transferred to Illinois and his offensive production skyrocketed. He averaged 17.2 points last season and in his final season with the Illini he’s averaging 23.3 points. He’s only gotten more productive in March. In his last five games, which included three games in the Big Ten Tournament, Shannon has averaged 31.6 points. Everything is flowing through the Chicago native.
Key storylines
Iowa State
Iowa State has played like the team we saw at the Big 12 Tournament. The worry was whether there might be a hangover from three wins in three days in the slugfest that is the yearly league meeting in Kansas City. But, nah. The Cyclones have been the Cyclones so far. The defense has been on point, and Washington State could have given them some issues. But ISU held the Cougars to 21% from the 3-point line. The offense has been there too. Both Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert have played well. Curtis Jones, as noted, has been great off the bench. Milan Momcilovic can get hotter from the 3-point line. And between Robert Jones, Tre King and Hason Ward the Cyclones have the paint covered. Is the Cyclones’ first Elite Eight trip since 2000 in the offing?
Illinois
Brad Underwood’s departure from Oklahoma State seems so, well, seven years ago. After Underwood bolted for Illinois so he could get paid, he rebuilt the Illini. It took a while. The past three years the Illini has won at least 20 games but failed to get out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. But this season, with Shannon’s surge and a forward-heavy lineup, it’s all come together. The Illini set a high for wins under Underwood (28), won the Big Ten Tournament and has carried that momentum into the Sweet 16, where they haven’t been since 2005 under … checks notes … Bruce Weber. That just happens to be Illinois’ last Final Four, too.
Prediction
Iowa State 69, Illinois 64. One player can’t slow down Terrence Shannon Jr. But the way Iowa State plays defense sure can. The Cyclones will slow the red-hot Shannon down enough to advance to the Elite Eight.
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.
